Mission Failure Predictor
Simulates hundreds of possible missions for one surface rover design. Each run has its own dust storms, panel dust, cold nights, missed relay passes and component wear-out. The tool then re-runs the same missions with single design changes and ranks which one buys the most survival.
Survival curve
How missions ended
One failed mission, day by day
Design changes ranked by survival gain
No single change rescues this design, so changes are ranked by how much longer missions last on average. Combine several, for example more RTG power together with better insulation, then run again.
Every variant re-uses the same random storms, dust, relay drop-outs and part lifetimes as the baseline (common random numbers), so differences come from the design change, not from luck.
Engineering model, not flight software. Values are representative of published surface-mission figures (solar irradiance at Mars about 590 W/m², lunar night about 354 hours, MMRTG output decay about 4.8% per year), simplified to a single-node thermal model with louvers and Weibull wear-out. Use it to compare designs, not to certify one.